From Morgan Stanley in a Nov. 7 note to clients:

Consumers are waiting for a deal; 70% of shoppers said they are waiting for stores to offer discounts before they begin their holiday shopping (Exhibit 7). Shoppers are looking to see substantial discounts before they begin spending; 30% of shoppers are waiting for 10% - 20% discounts while 27% are lookin…

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From LPL Financial (via Yahoo Finance):

“Markets historically have done well in the year after midterms [Figure 2]. In fact, they have been higher 18 out of 18 times in the following year dating back to 1950, with nearly identical historical returns under Democratic and Republican presidents. This is no guarantee that it will happen this time, of course…

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From a National Association of Realtors blog post on their “2022 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers“:

5. How far a buyer moved jumped to an all-time high of 50 miles from a range that had been steady between 10 to 15 miles.

Buyers' migration to small towns and rural areas was undoubtedly at play. Another factor is remote and hybrid work sett…

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BofA analysts conducted “text analysis of management commentary during US earnings/guidance/industry conf. calls.”

An interesting finding regarding labor: “Mentions of ‘signing bonuses’ are off peak from last fall when they were a huge factor in retaining and hiring staff, though mentions are still above pre-pandemic levels.“

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From the BLS: “Unemployment rates were lower in September than a year earlier in 354 of the 389 metropolitan areas, higher in 27 areas, and unchanged in 8 areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 150 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and 2 areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll …

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From the Census Bureau: “The homeownership rate of 66.0% was higher than the rate in the third quarter 2021 (65.4%) and not statistically different from the rate in the second quarter 2022 (65.8%).“

*Definition: ”The homeownership rate is computed by dividing the number of owner-occupied housing units by the number of occupied hous…

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From payroll processor ADP: “Job changers continued to record double-digit, year-over-year pay increases, but momentum in those gains is ebbing. For these workers, annual pay growth edged down for the third-straight month, to 15.2% in October from 15.7% in September. For job stayers, pay gains were 7.7%, in line with recent months.“

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The ISM’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October from 50.9 in September. A reading above 50 signals expansion, which suggests manufacturing activity continues to expand but at a decelerating rate.

From the ISM’s Timothy Fiore:

“The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to expand, but at the lowest rate since the coronavirus pandemic recover…

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From Apartment List’s Chris Salviati:

October estimates are in the books, and our national index is down 0.7% MoM

This is the single largest MoM decline in the history of our index (starting in 2017)

Rents have now dipped for two straight months and are down 1.1% total since August

For more on rent inflation, read this.

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…stock prices mostly reflect expectations for the future, and not so much what’s happening now or what’s happened in the past.

This is relevant today as the S&P 500 has rallied sharply from its Oct. 12 low, and yet  corporate earnings are deteriorating, economic growth is slowing, and unemploy…

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During quarterly earning season, much is made about whether or not companies report earnings that beat analysts’ expectations.

As you can see from the chart above from Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha, most companies usually beat expectations.

Over the past 16 years, an average of 74% of S&P 500 companies have beat quarterly earnings expectations. This beat r…

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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the six-month period from November to April during a midterm election year has been the best period to be in the S&P 500.

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From BofA Global Research:

“Mexico has a big opportunity with nearshoring as China is losing market share in the US. Nearshoring is the relocation of resources from one country to another which is closer to the final consumer. Given the fragmentation of global supply chains, US/China trade relations, changes in labor costs, and a prioritization of food …

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The Chicago Business Barometer index fell to 45.2 in October, down from 45.7 in September. This is the second consecutive print below 50, and any reading below 50 signals contraction in business activity.

The October survey also surveyed businesses regarding their inventories.

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