Debt delinquency rates are normalizing 💳

Not yet alarming, but worth watching ⚠️

(Source: NY Fed)

Consumer debt delinquency rates continue to normalize from historically low levels.

From the New York Fed’s Q4 2022 Household Debt and Credit report:

…As of December, 2.5% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, 2.2 percentage points lower than last quarter of 2019, just before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States.

The share of debt newly transitioning into delinquency increased for nearly all debt types, following two years of historically low delinquency transitions. Transition rates into early delinquency for credit cards and auto loans increased by 0.6 and 0.4 percentage points, following similarly sized increases in the second and third quarters. Delinquency transition rates for mortgages upticked by 0.15 percentage points. Those for student loans have remained flat, as the federal repayment pause remains in place…

Credit card debt trends have been of particular interest in recent months, as they tell us much about the health of consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP.