We got an interesting and telling piece of economic data on Friday.

Industrial production activity in March rose 0.9%, according to Federal Reserve data. This followed a strong 0.9% growth rate in February and 1.0% rate in January. It also surprised a lot of economists: The consensus forecast was for growth to decelerate to 0.4%.

The news came as some economists have been warning of recessionary risks as the Fed tightens monetary policy amid a worrisome rise in inflation, which has only been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

So, what’s happening?