Thanks Sam - great stuff. On the job openings I was told a lot of companies post multiple openings in different cities for 1 position and also many companies post ( as required by law) but intend on hiring from the inside. I think that is about 33% of the number. I love your posts even though I’m short the market at this moment your analysis is always spot on
As always good points Sam - what would your reply be to many of the (CNBC) pundits That say no way we get out of this with a soft landing given : markets have already run up over 40% since the start of the year ( NAS).. Interest rates are extremely high and the Fed is not easing up because inflation has not been beaten ( thus a major headwind for markets even if corporations are not borrowing it does matter for DCF models )
The forward PE at over 19 is at record highs and the Equity risk premium is at a record low - surly this can’t last and the market has already taken forward earnings growth into account
Anyway - I wish I was smart enough to say all of the above but I’m just repeating the narrative of the day.. can you counter ( I know you addresses the interest rate part a few posts ago )
Another great take on the financial media and their cutthroat competition for eyeballs. That retail data that came out today was another confirmation on how strong the US consumer continues to be. Ex-auto’s we would be looking at a 1% m/o/m increase. Much large than the .4% estimated. How much would you attribute this strong spending coupled with tight labor markets to the large demographics of 27-to 41 yr old millennials and older Gen Z. I know there are other contributing variables but, if we were to reduce the millennial population by $8mm (to equal Gen X population) with a snap of the Thanos glove, would the US consumer still be as strong? 🤷🏻♂️
Is good economic news really all that surprising? 📰
Thanks Sam - great stuff. On the job openings I was told a lot of companies post multiple openings in different cities for 1 position and also many companies post ( as required by law) but intend on hiring from the inside. I think that is about 33% of the number. I love your posts even though I’m short the market at this moment your analysis is always spot on
Absolutely an amazing article! Good job.
How about the ATL GDPNow 5.8% Q3 projection for some good news? ! ? !
I am very anti-media (MSM)! I like your content!
As always good points Sam - what would your reply be to many of the (CNBC) pundits That say no way we get out of this with a soft landing given : markets have already run up over 40% since the start of the year ( NAS).. Interest rates are extremely high and the Fed is not easing up because inflation has not been beaten ( thus a major headwind for markets even if corporations are not borrowing it does matter for DCF models )
The forward PE at over 19 is at record highs and the Equity risk premium is at a record low - surly this can’t last and the market has already taken forward earnings growth into account
Anyway - I wish I was smart enough to say all of the above but I’m just repeating the narrative of the day.. can you counter ( I know you addresses the interest rate part a few posts ago )
Another great take on the financial media and their cutthroat competition for eyeballs. That retail data that came out today was another confirmation on how strong the US consumer continues to be. Ex-auto’s we would be looking at a 1% m/o/m increase. Much large than the .4% estimated. How much would you attribute this strong spending coupled with tight labor markets to the large demographics of 27-to 41 yr old millennials and older Gen Z. I know there are other contributing variables but, if we were to reduce the millennial population by $8mm (to equal Gen X population) with a snap of the Thanos glove, would the US consumer still be as strong? 🤷🏻♂️