Market forecasters face a 'garbage in, garbage out' problem 🗑️

Valuation models are extremely sensitive to inputs that are unusually hard to predict right now 🧮

If you’re trying to predict the direction of the stock market using the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, you have to nail two numbers: the next-12 months’ earnings and the expected forward P/E ratio itself.

To reiterate, you have to nail both of them.