We're taking that vacation whether we like it or not 🛫

What consumers do matters more than what they say 🙃

Consumer confidence has been in the dumps. (Source: The Conference Board)

Consumer sentiment ticked lower in June, according to Conference Board and University of Michigan survey data.

As the chart above shows, sentiment had a long way to go before it can get back to prepandemic levels.

But there was an interesting detail in the survey data.

“The share of consumers planning a vacation over the next six months continued to increase and remains above last June’s level,“ the Conference Board observed.

Many Americans intend to take their vacations. (Source: Mastercard)

Morgan Stanley survey data and Mastercard spending data confirm this strength in vacation travel.

This is notable because unlike food or rent, vacationing is considered a discretionary expense.

And this isn’t just some anecdotal fluke. Broad spending data has shown consistently that weak sentiment isn’t keeping consumers from spending at a healthy clip.

Personal spending continues to trend at record levels. (Source: BEA via FRED)

Sure, spending growth hasn’t exactly been gangbusters in recent months. But the numbers continue to trend higher. They certainly aren’t down like the sentiment data.

It’s a contradiction that continues to slant favorably for investors.