We should prepare for a much cooler labor market 🥶

Jobs data is strong for now, but it's up against a hawkish Fed 🦅

(Source: BLS, FRED)

The labor market remains robust. For now, at least.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data released Friday, U.S. employers created 315,000 jobs in August, stronger than the 298,000 gain economists expected.

Since the beginning of the year, employers have added 3.5 million jobs, bringing total employment to a record 152.7 million.

(Source: BLS, FRED)

The unemployment rate increased to 3.7% in August from 3.5% the month prior. However, layoffs were not the culprit. Employment increased during the period, but the unemployment rate increased because even more people entered the labor force and began to seek work.¹

(Source: BLS, FRED)

The narrative coming from Friday’s report is consistent with Tuesday’s Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, which showed layoff activity remains depressed and demand for labor remains strong, as reflected by the elevated number of job openings.

BUT we need to begin managing expectations ⚠️