The US economy is now less ‘coiled’ 📈

Job openings have normalized from extraordinary levels 🧳

Job openings, while elevated, are off their highs. (Source: BLS via FRED)

Another massive economic tailwind has faded.

According to the BLS’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, job openings in April fell to 8.06 million, the lowest level since February 2021.

During the period, there were 6.49 million unemployed people — meaning there were 1.24 job openings per unemployed person. While this ratio continues to be one of the most obvious signs of excess demand for labor, it’s nevertheless back down to levels seen before the pandemic.

While there are still more job openings than unemployed people, the ratio has normalized. (Source: BLS via FRED)

To be clear, the normalization in job openings does not necessarily mean the economy is barreling toward a recession. On the contrary, many metrics suggest this economic recovery still has legs.

However, it’s the latest sign that the economy has gone from very hot to just pretty good.

When the economy became a ‘coiled spring’ 💪