Thanks for another great post. When I put everything together as you did, it seems like we're coming in for a soft landing. We may hit some turbulence (earnings, debt ceiling)and feel a drop, but ultimately, I think we land, taxi for a bit, then start to gradually take off again. For me, close to early retirement, it means I stay 50/50. If we drop ~10% I buy to 55/45. If we go up from here, I'm ok missing out a bit. Thanks Sam!
I noticed that Q1 2023 CC balances were flat from last quarter and didn’t trend down as it normally does after the q4 holiday spend, it alluded to personal savings drying up to the point that many households are only able to pay the min interest. But contrary to that data the BEA’s personal savings moved up from $650m in Oct 2022 to $1b in April 2023 and the savings rate moved up back over 5%. Is this the equilibrium level between “have’s & have not’s” or something different?
Thanks for another great post. When I put everything together as you did, it seems like we're coming in for a soft landing. We may hit some turbulence (earnings, debt ceiling)and feel a drop, but ultimately, I think we land, taxi for a bit, then start to gradually take off again. For me, close to early retirement, it means I stay 50/50. If we drop ~10% I buy to 55/45. If we go up from here, I'm ok missing out a bit. Thanks Sam!
I noticed that Q1 2023 CC balances were flat from last quarter and didn’t trend down as it normally does after the q4 holiday spend, it alluded to personal savings drying up to the point that many households are only able to pay the min interest. But contrary to that data the BEA’s personal savings moved up from $650m in Oct 2022 to $1b in April 2023 and the savings rate moved up back over 5%. Is this the equilibrium level between “have’s & have not’s” or something different?