Most of us are terrible stock market forecasters 🤦‍♂️

A monthly survey of consumer expectations tells us why

Consumers usually don’t expect stocks to go up. (Source: NY Fed)

Americans think it’s unlikely that stocks will be higher a year from now.

On average, people see just a 38.6% probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now. This is according to the New York Fed’s October Survey of Consumer Expectations. This is slightly below the historical average of 39.9%.

You can maybe see why. The stock market is way up lately¹ and valuations are above their long-run averages.²

We’ll have to wait a year to see if the folks surveyed by the NY Fed in October are proven right.

Historically, however, these folks have been proven wrong.

Since the monthly survey’s inception in June 2013, there’s only been one instance where the average probability went above 50%³, which means consumers have almost always been wrong about where stocks are headed.

Stocks usually go up