Amazing as always Sam. One question. While employment is steady, will Hurricane Helene affect the jobs report like the last storm in Texas did? If we see a spike in unemployment, will the market react positively because a larger rate cut is coming? Will it act negatively thinking this is a sign of a recession? Or will it discount it because there is alot of time for things to moderate before the next Fed meeting? I think the market falls, digests the info, then rises just like after the Texas storm. I hope that's not the case. Thanks again!
it's hard to say how markets will react in the short term. On one hand, bad news is bad news. On the other hand, the markets have experienced a lot of hurricanes in history. So we have to assume at least some of the news to come has already been priced into the market.
Regarding Helene, the timing is interesting in that it made landfall after the survey for the Sept jobs report and about two weeks before they conduct the survey for the October jobs report. This suggests many people who are out of work because of the hurricane now may already be back at work when the jobs report survey is conducted. Economists and the Fed know this. Weekly unemployment insurance claims will probably offer the best view on how bad Helene was for jobs.
All that said, it's horrible what's going on in southeast. It's an unspeakable tragedy. The only thing I'd add is that it would be a big mistake to underestimate how resilient people can be during times like this.
Amazing as always Sam. One question. While employment is steady, will Hurricane Helene affect the jobs report like the last storm in Texas did? If we see a spike in unemployment, will the market react positively because a larger rate cut is coming? Will it act negatively thinking this is a sign of a recession? Or will it discount it because there is alot of time for things to moderate before the next Fed meeting? I think the market falls, digests the info, then rises just like after the Texas storm. I hope that's not the case. Thanks again!
it's hard to say how markets will react in the short term. On one hand, bad news is bad news. On the other hand, the markets have experienced a lot of hurricanes in history. So we have to assume at least some of the news to come has already been priced into the market.
Regarding Helene, the timing is interesting in that it made landfall after the survey for the Sept jobs report and about two weeks before they conduct the survey for the October jobs report. This suggests many people who are out of work because of the hurricane now may already be back at work when the jobs report survey is conducted. Economists and the Fed know this. Weekly unemployment insurance claims will probably offer the best view on how bad Helene was for jobs.
All that said, it's horrible what's going on in southeast. It's an unspeakable tragedy. The only thing I'd add is that it would be a big mistake to underestimate how resilient people can be during times like this.