I've had a lot to say lately 🎙️🎧
Plus a charted review of the macro crosscurrents 🔀
📈The stock market climbed last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 3.6% to end at 6,816.89. The index is now down 2.3% from its Jan. 27 closing high of 6,978.60 and down 0.4% year to date. For market insights, check out the Stock Market tab at TKer. »
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It’s been a busy and exciting few weeks here at TKer.
I’ve been doing quite a bit of media. Also, I celebrated another trip around the sun on Thursday.
Instead of sending me birthday gifts, take some time and listen to one or more of the five podcasts linked below. (The secret is to listen at 1.3x speed.)
Podcasts are fun, but they can also be risky. Because the best podcasters are great at timing some curveball questions that force you to go off script a bit. I’ll always decline to answer questions that I have no business responding to. But sometimes I can’t help but engage and opine.
By the way, I’ve written about almost everything discussed. If you want related data, charts, quotes, and any other context, head to TKer.co and use the search function to find relevant articles!
Different angles on earnings and new ETFs that aren’t bulls—t 👀
Whether it’s software stocks, international markets, short-term volatility, the effect of high energy prices, or anything else related to stock market moves, there’s an earnings story to be told.
I joined IBKR’s Steve Sosnick and Ritholtz Wealth’s Michael Batnick on The Compound and Friends. We talked about AI’s effects across sectors, the boom in emerging market stocks, the massive pipeline of IPOs, the birth of QQQ dupes, and much more. Check it out on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts!
The Markets Minister’s tips on talking to clients 🎙️
Raw financial news isn’t for everyone. In financial markets, short-term traders and long-term investors use information differently, and so it should be communicated to them differently.
I talked about this with Wealth Consulting Group’s Jimmy Lee and Talley Léger on The Bull of Wall Street podcast. We dug into why financial news seems so bearish, how investors can prepare for market volatility, what I’m watching in private credit, how stock market turnover explains why prices go higher, and why Tally has dubbed me the “Markets Minister.” Check it out on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts!
From law firm grunt to markets newsletter entrepreneur 📝
I didn’t study finance or economics in school. But my first job out of school at Paul Weiss got me neck deep in the fascinating world of equity research.
My fellow veteran financial journalist Roben Farzad had me on Full Disclosure to talk about how I got to where I am today. We also explored why the post-financial crisis “new normal” ended, what I’m watching regarding crypto, and how reader feedback led to the birth of TKer. Check it out on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and anywhere you get podcasts!
Talking fundamentals vs. technicals over a drink 🍻
Not all chart gurus are created equal. At the top of the top tier of market technicians are Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick and CappThesis’ Frank Cappelleri. I joined them and the brilliant market economist Sonu Varghese on the informal Facts vs Feelings: Social Hour.
We talked about how geopolitical headlines move markets, why the market is more resilient than its market leaders, and what diversification offers during times like these. Check it out on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts!
Navigating the noise and playing the long game 🔭
Most of us are in the stock market because we’re building wealth for a better future.
With the long term in mind, Plancorp’s Peter Lazaroff and I talked about how earnings, valuations, economic data, and market narratives drive prices over time. Check out this episode of the aptly named The Long Term Investor on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts!
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Related from TKer:
5 thoughts I had while chatting with smart finance podcasters 💬
How to become one of Wall Street’s most accurate analysts in one step 🧮
Review of the macro crosscurrents 🔀
There were several notable data points and macroeconomic developments since our last review:
⛽️ Gas and diesel prices surge. From AAA: “The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline went up 8 cents since last week to $4.16. The last time the national average reached that price was in early August of 2022. Crude oil prices remain high, even as they’ve fluctuated in recent days following the announcement of a 2-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The price for a barrel of crude dropped below $100 but then rose again, highlighting the volatility of oil markets and fluidity of geopolitical events.”
Here’s a look at the trajectory of gas and diesel prices, as tracked by the EIA.
For more on energy prices, read: Our love-hate relationship with rising oil prices in charts 💔🛢️📊
🎈Consumer price inflation rises. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 3.3% year-over-year in March, up from 2.4% the month prior. Adjusted for food and energy prices, core CPI was up 2.6%.
On a month-over-month basis, CPI jumped 0.9%, driven by a 10.9% surge in energy prices. Core CPI increased 0.2%. If you annualize the three-month and six-month figures — a reflection of the short-term trend in prices — core CPI climbed 2.9% and 2.3%, respectively.
🎈 Key inflation metric could be cooler. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in February was up 2.8% from a year ago. The core PCE price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation — was up 3.0% during the month, down from January’s 3.1% rate. While it’s down from crisis levels four years ago, it remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
On a month-over-month basis, the core PCE price index was up 0.37%. If you annualize the rolling three-month and six-month figures — a reflection of the near-term trend in prices — the core PCE price index was up 4.4% and 3.4%, respectively.
For more discussion on inflation and monetary policy, read: The other side of the Fed’s inflation ‘mistake’ 🧐 and ‘How many times will the Fed cut rates?’ is not the right question for stock market investors 🔪
🎈 Inflation expectations worsen as gas prices surge. From the New York Fed’s March Survey of Consumer Expectations: “Gas price growth expectations surged to the highest level since March 2022. … Median inflation expectations increased by 0.4 percentage point to 3.4% at the one-year-ahead horizon, increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1% at the three-year-ahead horizon, and were unchanged at 3.0% at the five-year-ahead horizon in March.”
⛓️ Supply chain pressures are building. The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index — a composite of various supply chain indicators — ticked higher in March. While it’s way down from its December 2021 supply chain crisis high, it has returned to its highest level since January 2023.
For more on the supply chain, read: We can stop calling it a supply chain crisis ⛓
💼 New unemployment insurance claims, total ongoing claims remain low. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 219,000 during the week ending Apr. 4, up from 203,000 the week prior. This metric remains at levels historically associated with economic growth.
Insured unemployment, which captures those who continue to claim unemployment benefits, declined to 1.79 million during the week ending March 28.
For more on the labor market, read: The next couple of years for the job market could be tough 🫤
🤔 Recent private job growth has picked up, but remains lackluster. According to payroll processor ADP, private U.S. employers added 26,000 jobs in the four weeks ending March 21.
For more on the labor market, read: About that ugly jobs report 📉
👎 Consumer vibes are in the dumps. From the University of Michigan’s March Surveys of Consumers: “Consumer sentiment sank about 11% this month, extending a decline that began with the start of the Iran conflict, and is currently about 9% below a year ago. Demographic groups across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall. One-year expected business conditions plunged about 20% and is now 6% below last April.”
More from the survey: “Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values. Buying conditions for durables and vehicles worsened, again on the basis of high prices.“
For more on consumer sentiment, read: What consumers do > what consumers say 🙊
💳 Card spending data is holding up. From BofA: “Total card spending per HH was up 6.5% y/y in the week ending Apr 4, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. Total card ex gas spending remained steady at a solid 5.7% y/y with a rise in entertainment, grocery & GM since last week. Also, y/y spending is being boosted by Good Friday timing mismatch (4/3/26 vs 4/18/25).“
Consumer spending data has looked a lot better than consumer sentiment readings. For more on this contradiction, read: We’re taking that vacation whether we like it or not 🛫 and Household finances are both ‘worse’ and ‘good’ 🌦️
🤑 Consumers were spending, even as incomes fell. According to BEA data, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% month-over-month in February to an annual rate of $21.65 trillion, an all-time high.
Adjusted for inflation, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1% from the prior month to another all-time high.
Spending climbed across categories.
Spending climbed despite incomes contracting.
🏠 Mortgage rates dip. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined to 6.37%, down from 6.46% last week.
As of Q4, there were 148.7 million housing units in the U.S., of which 87.8 million were owner-occupied and about 40% were mortgage-free. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have fixed-rate mortgages, and most of those mortgages have rates that were locked in before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to the small weekly movements in home prices or mortgage rates.
For more on mortgages and home prices, read: Why home prices and rents are creating all sorts of confusion about inflation 😖
🏭 Business investment activity rose to new record. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft — a.k.a. core capex or business investment — climbed 0.7% to a record $79.53 billion in February.
Core capex orders are a leading indicator, meaning they foretell economic activity down the road.
👎 Services activity survey signals cooling growth. From ISM’s March U.S. Services PMI: “The Prices Index increased, as expected, amid higher oil and fuel costs, and the Supplier Deliveries Index indicated slower performance compared to February, also unsurprisingly with shipping issues and flight disruptions due to the Middle East conflict and winter weather. Continuing strength in business activity, new orders and backlog of orders are positive economic signals, so the Employment Index dropping to its lowest level since December 2023 (43.5%) was a surprise.”
Keep in mind that during times of perceived stress, soft survey data tends to be more exaggerated than actual hard data.
For more on this, read: What businesses do > what businesses say 🙊
📈 Near-term GDP growth estimates are tracking positively. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees real GDP growth rising at a 1.3% rate in Q1.
For more on GDP and the economy, read: It’s too ambiguous to just say ‘the economy’ 🤦🏻♂️ and Economic data can often be both ‘worse’ and ‘good’ 🌦️
Putting it all together 📋
Earnings look bullish: The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, bolstered by expectations for years of earnings growth. And earnings are the most important driver of stock prices.
Demand is positive: Demand for goods and services remains positive, supported by healthy consumer and business balance sheets. Personal spending activity remains at record levels. Core capex orders, which are a leading indicator of business spending, have been on the rise.
Growth is cooling: While the economy remains healthy, growth has normalized from much hotter levels earlier in the cycle. The economy is less “coiled” these days as major tailwinds like job openings and excess savings have faded. Job creation is hovering at near-zero. It has become harder to argue that growth is destiny.
Actions speak louder than words: We are in an odd period, given that the hard economic data decoupled from the soft sentiment-oriented data. Consumer and business sentiment has been relatively poor, even as tangible consumer and business activity continues to grow and trend at record levels. From an investor’s perspective, what matters is that the hard economic data continues to hold up.
Stocks are not the economy: There’s a case to be made that the U.S. stock market could outperform the U.S. economy in the near term, thanks largely to positive operating leverage. Since the pandemic, companies have aggressively adjusted their cost structures. This came with strategic layoffs and investment in new equipment, including hardware powered by AI. These moves are resulting in positive operating leverage, which means a modest amount of sales growth — in the cooling economy — is translating to robust earnings growth.
Mind the ever-present risks: Of course, we should not get complacent. There will always be risks to worry about, such as U.S. political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, energy price volatility, and cyber attacks. There are also the dreaded unknowns. Any of these risks can flare up and spark short-term volatility in the markets.
Investing is never a smooth ride: There’s also the harsh reality that economic recessions and bear markets are developments that all long-term investors should expect as they build wealth in the markets. Always keep your stock market seat belts fastened.
Think long-term: For now, there’s no reason to believe there’ll be a challenge that the economy and the markets won’t overcome. The long game remains undefeated, and it’s a streak that long-term investors can expect to continue.
For more on how the macro story is evolving, check out the previous review of the macro crosscurrents. »
Key insights about the stock market 📈
Here’s a roundup of some of TKer’s most talked-about paid and free newsletters about the stock market. All of the headlines are hyperlinked to the archived pieces.
10 truths about the stock market 📈
The stock market can be an intimidating place: It’s real money on the line, there’s an overwhelming amount of information, and people have lost fortunes in it very quickly. But it’s also a place where thoughtful investors have long accumulated a lot of wealth. The primary difference between those two outlooks is related to misconceptions about the stock market that can lead people to make poor investment decisions.
The makeup of the S&P 500 is constantly changing 🔀
Passive investing is a concept usually associated with buying and holding a fund that tracks an index. And no passive investment strategy has attracted as much attention as buying an S&P 500 index fund. However, the S&P 500 — an index of 500 of the largest U.S. companies — is anything but a static set of 500 stocks.
The key driver of stock prices: Earnings💰
For investors, anything you can ever learn about a company matters only if it also tells you something about earnings. That’s because long-term moves in a stock can ultimately be explained by the underlying company’s earnings, expectations for earnings, and uncertainty about those expectations for earnings. Over time, the relationship between stock prices and earnings has a very tight statistical relationship.
Stomach-churning stock market sell-offs are normal🎢
Investors should always be mentally prepared for some big sell-offs in the stock market. It’s part of the deal when you invest in an asset class that is sensitive to the constant flow of good and bad news. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen an average annual max drawdown (i.e., the biggest intra-year sell-off) of 14%.
How the stock market performed around recessions 📉📈
Every recession in history was different. And the range of stock performance around them varied greatly. There are two things worth noting. First, recessions have always been accompanied by a significant drawdown in stock prices. Second, the stock market bottomed and inflected upward long before recessions ended.
In the stock market, time pays ⏳
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has generated a positive total return more than 89% of the time over all five-year periods. Those are pretty good odds. When you extend the timeframe to 20 years, you’ll see that there’s never been a period where the S&P 500 didn’t generate a positive return.
What a strong dollar means for stocks 👑
While a strong dollar may be great news for Americans vacationing abroad and U.S. businesses importing goods from overseas, it’s a headwind for multinational U.S.-based corporations doing business in non-U.S. markets.
Stanley Druckenmiller's No. 1 piece of advice for novice investors 🧐
…you don't want to buy them when earnings are great, because what are they doing when their earnings are great? They go out and expand capacity. Three or four years later, there's overcapacity and they're losing money. What about when they're losing money? Well, then they’ve stopped building capacity. So three or four years later, capacity will have shrunk and their profit margins will be way up. So, you always have to sort of imagine the world the way it's going to be in 18 to 24 months as opposed to now. If you buy it now, you're buying into every single fad every single moment. Whereas if you envision the future, you're trying to imagine how that might be reflected differently in security prices.
Peter Lynch made a remarkably prescient market observation in 1994 🎯
Some event will come out of left field, and the market will go down, or the market will go up. Volatility will occur. Markets will continue to have these ups and downs. … Basic corporate profits have grown about 8% a year historically. So, corporate profits double about every nine years. The stock market ought to double about every nine years… The next 500 points, the next 600 points — I don’t know which way they’ll go… They’ll double again in eight or nine years after that. Because profits go up 8% a year, and stocks will follow. That's all there is to it.
Warren Buffett's 'fourth law of motion' 📉
Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac’s talents didn’t extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, “I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.” If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.
Most pros can’t beat the market 🥊
According to S&P Dow Jones Indices (SPDJI), 79% of U.S. large-cap equity fund managers underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025. As you stretch the time horizon, the numbers get even more dismal. Over three years, 67% underperformed. Over 5 years, 89% underperformed. And over 20 years, 93% underperformed. This 2025 performance was the 16th consecutive year in which the majority of fund managers in this category have lagged the index.
Proof that 'past performance is no guarantee of future results' 📊
Even if you are a fund manager who generated industry-leading returns in one year, history says it’s an almost insurmountable task to stay on top consistently in subsequent years. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, just 4.21% of all U.S. equity funds in the top half of performance during the first year were able to remain in the top during the four subsequent years. Only 2.42% of U.S. large-cap funds remained in the top half
SPDJI’s report also considered fund performance relative to their benchmarks over the past three years. Of 738 U.S. large-cap equity funds tracked by SPDJI, 50.68% beat the S&P 500 in 2022. Just 5.08% beat the S&P in the two years ending 2023. And only 2.14% of the funds beat the index over the three years ending in 2024.
The odds are stacked against stock pickers 🎲
Picking stocks in an attempt to beat market averages is an incredibly challenging and sometimes money-losing effort. Most professional stock pickers aren’t able to do this consistently. One of the reasons for this is that most stocks don’t deliver above-average returns. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, only 19% of the stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the average stock’s return from 2001 to 2025. Over this period, the average return on an S&P 500 stock was 452%, while the median stock rose by just 59%.
