I was on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast with writers who won't be replaced by machines 🎙️
Plus a charted review of the macro crosscurrents 🔀
Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway invited me onto the Odd Lots podcast to chat alongside Silicon Valley culture writer Jasmine Sun and Citrini Research founder James van Geelen. Check it out on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Bloomberg!
Jasmine, James, and I are all independent publishers operating in an industry where the business economics are being slammed by the AI wrecking ball causing professional writers to question the value of their work.
We each have different angles on the challenges. But I think ultimately, we are each finding opportunity and growth by offering something AI can’t.
Citrini subscribers (click here to join them) know that James has a strong track record of going deep on big market themes before they hit the radar of most market participants. Recently, Citrini sent an analyst to Oman, where the anonymous contributor managed to get on a speedboat and visit the Strait of Hormuz with “$15,000 in cash and a roll of Zyn.” All this is to say that James and his team are doing things that people can’t get from an AI chatbot.
Jasmine has a refreshingly unusual style of covering tech and tech culture, approaching it less like a reporter and more like a social scientist (click here to see her work). She gets unique perspectives by doing the on-the-ground, in-person reporting that has yet to be meaningfully disrupted by AI. Importantly, she captures original human stories that are often overlooked or deprioritized by brass-tacks observers more interested in tangible outcomes like revenue and compute power.
Their processes and writing styles can’t be distilled down to a formula. There is a distinctly human element to what they do, which can’t be defined precisely.
By definition, AI is not human. Therefore, it will never possess the human qualities from which other humans find intangible value.
“The value of polish is going to go down, and the value of personal charisma, style, and weirdness is going to go up,” Jasmine said at a Substack event in May.
I’m bullish on humans.
Readers tell me TKer is about much more than market information 📈
Joe asked me how I think about content in an era when people can get all their questions about market history easily answered by AI.
“I love your newsletter, I read it, I’m a paid subscriber, and all that,” he said. “I think I could train a model to write a newsletter that says stocks go up.”
To me, this issue is about more than AI. It actually speaks to challenges I’ve been wrestling with since very early in my career. My first two jobs out of school involved legal coding and data entry, tasks that have been increasingly automated. And for the past 20 years, I’ve been writing about markets, which largely involves taking information from one tab on my computer and transferring it into another tab.
And then there’s the fact that I specifically write about news in the context of long-term investing truths, which largely haven’t changed for decades.
“I write about the stock market usually going up, which, even before AI, is kind of a ridiculous thing to be writing about,” I said. “Everyone who has money in their 401(k)s and IRAs has already been told this. So it’s like, ‘Why do I exist?’”
For the most part, the charts and stats I feature are already out there for public consumption.
In other words, information was never really an edge for me.
My edge has been adding value for readers with my eye for curation, my voice, and my mostly as-needed publishing cadence. At least this is what I’ve been told by paid subscribers. (Please click here to join them!)
Much of what I write about can be found in the hundreds of research reports Wall Street firms circulate to the media industry every week. And some of what I write about can be found in the thousands of news articles and dozens of daily newsletters published every day.
But some people don’t like reading those research reports, don’t know which news articles matter, and don’t have the time to open every issue of every daily newsletter.
So without TKer, you might miss the data showing that all-time highs are a great time to buy, a falling personal saving rate isn’t a bad economic signal, and rising interest rates aren’t obviously bad for stocks.
I suspect AI agents — like the one Joe may eventually build — will eventually get better at providing this service in a personalized way.
But AI can’t offer a first-person perspective on why it finds investing to be unpleasant. It can’t experience the lingering anguish and embarrassment a person suffers from poorly timed trades. It won’t share in the traumatic memories from past economic crises. And it won’t feel the panic and helplessness that comes from having your home flooded… twice!
I’m a person with feelings, investing in this rollercoaster stock market alongside you. I know how hard it can be to stick with a plan and trust the data when your world is imploding on you. And I know that sometimes it helps to hear the same lesson for the umpteenth time.
Hope in an uncertain AI future 🌅
TKer isn’t for everyone. At the margin, I suspect I’ll lose some existing or potential subscribers who’ll find their needs served by an AI agent.
But I’m also hopeful that there’ll always be a robust readership seeking articles written by humans. Indeed, history is riddled with cases of emerging technology disrupting industries while leaving plenty of room for stuff that isn’t manufactured by a machine.
Check this episode of Odd Lots on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Bloomberg!
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Related from TKer:
What I got wrong about the post-Global Financial Crisis recovery ❤️🩹
The unluckiest market timer I know made another poorly timed trade 🤦🏻♂️
No amount of risk management prepares you for when Sam Ro’s apartment gets flooded 🚣🏻
It’s OK to have emotions — just don’t let them near your stock portfolio 📉
Review of the macro crosscurrents 🔀
📈The stock market climbed last week, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.9% to end at 7,500.58. The index is now down 1.4% from its June 2 closing high of 7,609.78 and up 9.6% year-to-date. For market insights, check out the Stock Market tab at TKer. »
There were several notable data points and macroeconomic developments since our last review:
🏛️ Fed holds rates at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%.
From the Fed’s policy statement: “Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.“
Fed members revised upwards their outlook for inflation and revised downwards their outlook for unemployment.
Notably, 9 of 18 members anticipate a rate hike in 2026.
For more on what Fed policy could mean for markets, read: Does the stock market test new Fed chairs? 🏛️ and ‘When will the Fed cut rates?’ is not the right question for investors right now ✂️
⛽️ Gas prices fall below $4. From AAA: “For the first time since March 30, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is down to $3.99. This marks nearly 4 straight weeks of declines. Crude oil prices are down as the U.S. and Iran reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.“
Here’s a longer-term look at the trajectory of gas and diesel prices, as tracked by the EIA.
For more on energy prices, read: Our love-hate relationship with rising oil prices in charts 💔🛢️📊
💼 New unemployment insurance claims, total ongoing claims remain low. Initial claims for unemployment benefits declined to 226,000 during the week ending June 13, down from 230,000 the week prior. This metric remains at levels historically associated with economic growth.
Insured unemployment, which captures those who continue to claim unemployment benefits, ticked up to 1.81 million during the week ending June 6.
For more on the labor market, read: Why mass tech layoffs have little effect on total employment 💾
🤔 Recent private job growth is stable. According to payroll processor ADP, private U.S. employers added 25,500 jobs in the four weeks ending May 30.
For more on the labor market, read: Things are looking up in the labor market👍
🛍️ Retail shopping activity rose. Retail sales in May increased 0.9% to a record $763.7 billion, led by higher gasoline prices.
Excluding autos and gas, which tend to be volatile in the short term, retail sales climbed 0.5%.
Most retail categories grew during the period.
💳 Card spending data is holding up. From BofA: “Total card spending per HH was up 5.9% y/y in the week ending Jun 13, according to BAC aggregated credit & debit card data. Ex-gas spending rose by a still solid 4.9% y/y. Airlines & electronics spending growth saw the biggest rise since last week. The gap in total card ex-gas spending between higher- and lower-income households has narrowed in recent days.“
Consumer spending data has looked a lot better than consumer sentiment readings. For more on this contradiction, read: We’re taking that vacation whether we like it or not 🛫 and Household finances are both ‘worse’ and ‘good’ 🌦️
🛠️ Industrial activity increased. Industrial production activity in May rose 0.1% from prior month levels. Manufacturing output was unchanged compared to the prior month.
🏠 Mortgage rates tick lower. According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined to 6.47%, down from 6.52% last week. From Freddie Mac: “Incoming data continues to reflect a resilient consumer, with retail sales improving and pending home sales strengthening, suggesting purchase demand is continuing to modestly improve.“
As of Q1, there were 147.6 million housing units in the U.S., of which 86.0 million were owner-occupied and about 40% were mortgage-free. Of those carrying mortgage debt, almost all have fixed-rate mortgages, and most of those mortgages have rates that were locked in before rates surged from 2021 lows. All of this is to say: Most homeowners are not particularly sensitive to the small weekly movements in home prices or mortgage rates.
For more on mortgages and home prices, read: Why home prices and rents are creating all sorts of confusion about inflation 😖
🏠 Homebuilder sentiment ticks up from low levels. From the NAHB: “Costly and inefficient regulatory policy is clearly impeding the ability of builders to increase the housing supply. According to a new NAHB study, government regulation, taxes, fees and other costs add more than 26% to the price of an average single-family home. Easing permitting bottlenecks, density limits and inefficient zoning rules would help reduce costs and support the housing growth the nation needs.”
🔨 New home construction starts fell. Housing starts declined 15.4% in May to an annualized rate of 1.18 million units, according to the Census Bureau. Building permits fell 0.7% to an annualized rate of 1.41 million units.
😬 This is the stuff pros are worried about. From BofA’s June Global Fund Manager Survey: “FMS investors continue to say the biggest tail risk for markets is ‘2nd wave inflation’ (per 34%). The perceived risk of ‘geopolitical conflict’ has collapsed in the past two months to 12% (from 44%). Tail risk of ‘AI bubble’ has risen to 28% (from 5% two months ago).”
Here’s how the biggest “tail risk” has evolved over the years.
For more on risks, read: Three observations about uncertainty in the markets 😟 and Two times when uncertainty seemed low and confidence was high 🌈
📈 Near-term GDP growth estimates are tracking positively. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model sees real GDP growth rising at a 3.0% rate in Q2.
For more on GDP and the economy, read: It’s too ambiguous to just say ‘the economy’ 🤦🏻♂️ and Economic data can often be both ‘worse’ and ‘good’ 🌦️
Putting it all together 📋
Earnings look bullish: The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, bolstered by expectations for years of earnings growth. And earnings are the most important driver of stock prices.
Demand is positive: Demand for goods and services remains positive, supported by healthy consumer and business balance sheets. Personal spending activity remains at record levels. Core capex orders, which are a leading indicator of business spending, have been trending higher.
Growth rates have cooled: While the economy remains healthy, growth has normalized from much hotter levels earlier in the cycle. The economy is less “coiled” these days as major tailwinds like job openings and excess savings have faded. Job creation, while positive, is not as hot as it used to be. It has become harder to argue that growth is destiny.
Actions speak louder than words: We are in an odd period, given that the hard economic data decoupled from the soft sentiment-oriented data. Consumer and business sentiment has been relatively poor, even as tangible consumer and business activity continues to grow and trend at record levels. From an investor’s perspective, what matters is that the hard economic data continues to hold up.
Stocks are not the economy: There’s a case to be made that the U.S. stock market could outperform the U.S. economy in the near term, thanks largely to positive operating leverage. Since the pandemic, companies have aggressively adjusted their cost structures. This came with strategic layoffs and investment in new equipment, including hardware powered by AI. These moves are resulting in positive operating leverage, which means a modest amount of sales growth — in the cooling economy — is translating to robust earnings growth.
Mind the ever-present risks: Of course, we should not get complacent. There will always be risks to worry about, such as U.S. political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, energy price volatility, and cyber attacks. There are also the dreaded unknowns. Any of these risks can flare up and spark short-term volatility in the markets.
Investing is never a smooth ride: There’s also the harsh reality that economic recessions and bear markets are developments that all long-term investors should expect as they build wealth in the markets. Always keep your stock market seat belts fastened.
Think long-term: For now, there’s no reason to believe there’ll be a challenge that the economy and the markets won’t overcome. The long game remains undefeated, and it’s a streak that long-term investors can expect to continue.
For more on how the macro story is evolving, check out the previous review of the macro crosscurrents. »
Key insights about the stock market 📈
Here’s a roundup of some of TKer’s most talked-about paid and free newsletters about the stock market. All of the headlines are hyperlinked to the archived pieces.
10 truths about the stock market 📈
The stock market can be an intimidating place: It’s real money on the line, there’s an overwhelming amount of information, and people have lost fortunes in it very quickly. But it’s also a place where thoughtful investors have long accumulated a lot of wealth. The primary difference between those two outlooks is related to misconceptions about the stock market that can lead people to make poor investment decisions.
The makeup of the S&P 500 is constantly changing 🔀
Passive investing is a concept usually associated with buying and holding a fund that tracks an index. And no passive investment strategy has attracted as much attention as buying an S&P 500 index fund. However, the S&P 500 — an index of 500 of the largest U.S. companies — is anything but a static set of 500 stocks.
The key driver of stock prices: Earnings💰
For investors, anything you can ever learn about a company matters only if it also tells you something about earnings. That’s because long-term moves in a stock can ultimately be explained by the underlying company’s earnings, expectations for earnings, and uncertainty about those expectations for earnings. Over time, the relationship between stock prices and earnings has a very tight statistical relationship.
Stomach-churning stock market sell-offs are normal🎢
Investors should always be mentally prepared for some big sell-offs in the stock market. It’s part of the deal when you invest in an asset class that is sensitive to the constant flow of good and bad news. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has seen an average annual max drawdown (i.e., the biggest intra-year sell-off) of 14%.
How the stock market performed around recessions 📉📈
Every recession in history was different. And the range of stock performance around them varied greatly. There are two things worth noting. First, recessions have always been accompanied by a significant drawdown in stock prices. Second, the stock market bottomed and inflected upward long before recessions ended.
In the stock market, time pays ⏳
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has generated a positive total return more than 89% of the time over all five-year periods. Those are pretty good odds. When you extend the timeframe to 20 years, you’ll see that there’s never been a period where the S&P 500 didn’t generate a positive return.
What a strong dollar means for stocks 👑
While a strong dollar may be great news for Americans vacationing abroad and U.S. businesses importing goods from overseas, it’s a headwind for multinational U.S.-based corporations doing business in non-U.S. markets.
Stanley Druckenmiller’s No. 1 piece of advice for novice investors 🧐
…you don’t want to buy them when earnings are great, because what are they doing when their earnings are great? They go out and expand capacity. Three or four years later, there’s overcapacity and they’re losing money. What about when they’re losing money? Well, then they’ve stopped building capacity. So three or four years later, capacity will have shrunk and their profit margins will be way up. So, you always have to sort of imagine the world the way it’s going to be in 18 to 24 months as opposed to now. If you buy it now, you’re buying into every single fad every single moment. Whereas if you envision the future, you’re trying to imagine how that might be reflected differently in security prices.
Peter Lynch made a remarkably prescient market observation in 1994 🎯
Some event will come out of left field, and the market will go down, or the market will go up. Volatility will occur. Markets will continue to have these ups and downs. … Basic corporate profits have grown about 8% a year historically. So, corporate profits double about every nine years. The stock market ought to double about every nine years… The next 500 points, the next 600 points — I don’t know which way they’ll go… They’ll double again in eight or nine years after that. Because profits go up 8% a year, and stocks will follow. That’s all there is to it.
Warren Buffett’s ‘fourth law of motion’ 📉
Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac’s talents didn’t extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, “I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.” If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases.
Most pros can’t beat the market 🥊
According to S&P Dow Jones Indices (SPDJI), 79% of U.S. large-cap equity fund managers underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025. As you stretch the time horizon, the numbers get even more dismal. Over three years, 67% underperformed. Over 5 years, 89% underperformed. And over 20 years, 93% underperformed. This 2025 performance was the 16th consecutive year in which the majority of fund managers in this category have lagged the index.
Proof that ‘past performance is no guarantee of future results’ 📊
Even if you are a fund manager who generated industry-leading returns in one year, history says it’s an almost insurmountable task to stay on top consistently in subsequent years. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, of the 334 large-cap equity funds in the top half of performance in 2021, 58.7% remained at the top half in 2022. However, just 6.9% remained on top through 2023. Only 4.5% stayed on top in the five consecutive years through 2025.
It’s much more dismal when you raise the bar. Of the 164 large-cap equity funds in the top quartile in 2021, just 20.1% remained in that category in 2022. That percentage fell to literally 0.0% in 2023.
The odds are stacked against stock pickers 🎲
Picking stocks in an attempt to beat market averages is an incredibly challenging and sometimes money-losing effort. Most professional stock pickers aren’t able to do this consistently. One of the reasons for this is that most stocks don’t deliver above-average returns. According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, only 19% of the stocks in the S&P 500 outperformed the average stock’s return from 2001 to 2025. Over this period, the average return on an S&P 500 stock was 452%, while the median stock rose by just 59%.
I am relatively confident that an AI model would hallucinate conclusions if it were to try to recreate a TKer like newsletter, which would render it pretty useless. You synthesize information from so many areas and simplify it into digestible nuggets for people like me who just need a 10-15 minute brain break from work. I am also confident that if you really mess something up, you'll issue a correction in the future, not leave us guessing at what the truth is.